The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast that the global oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2023. This follows a recovery in Middle East exports, which have outpaced global demand despite ongoing attacks on shipping.
The IEA reported that oil supplies are expected to exceed demand, marking the first surplus since the Iran war. This shift is attributed to increased Gulf exports, which have led to a market surplus in October. The agency also confirmed that 71 million barrels of oil will be released from emergency reserves by the end of February, with 15 million barrels of diesel included in the release.
The surplus comes amid continued tensions in the region, which have affected global oil trade. The IEA’s analysis highlights the resilience of Gulf producers, who have managed to maintain export levels despite security challenges. The release of emergency reserves is part of a broader effort to stabilize prices and meet global demand. The agency emphasized that the surplus is a temporary adjustment, with long-term demand trends remaining stable.
